The Morning Filter

Where the Stock Market May Be Heading Next and What to Buy Now

Episode Summary

Morningstar’s chief market strategist and economist share their outlooks for the second half of 2026.

Episode Notes

In this bonus episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski are joined by Morningstar chief economist Preston Caldwell. They discuss their market and economic outlooks for the remainder of 2026. Tune in to find out what drove first half performance and what second half risks to watch out for. Small cap stocks continue to look attractive from a valuation perspective even after their recent run-up, but what sectors are undervalued today?

They unpack expectations for economic growth, inflation, and interest rates for the remainder of 2026 and discuss what impact AI is having on various parts of the economy. They close talking about bonds and whether the worst is behind the private credit market.

Episode Highlights 

• A first half performance recap and whether the US stock market looks overvalued today.
• The second-half risks to watch out for.
• Which sectors, styles, and market caps look undervalued—and which look overpriced. 
• Morningstar’s updated list of analyst picks.
• Morningstar’s US economic outlook for the remainder of 2026.
• Bond market matters: Is taking on credit risk a smart move today?

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q3 Stock Market Outlook: Investors Face Balanced Risks, Selective Opportunities

What’s Ahead in 2027 and Beyond for Inflation, Fed Rate Cuts, and More

Have an idea for a bonus episode of The Morning Filter? Send it to themorningfilter@morningstar.com.

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